Uncommon Ground

Biology

The influence of climate on tree growth

Northern Hemisphere temperature changes estimated from various proxy records shown in blue (Mann et al. 1999). Instrumental data shown in red. Note the large uncertainty (grey area) as you go further back in time.

Ecologists and paleoecologists have used the width of tree rings for years as a way of inferring past climates. In fact, tree ring data were an important component of the proxy data Mann et al. (1998) used when they constructed their famous1 hockey stick representing global surface temperatures over the last millennium. I don’t have anything as earth shattering as a hockey stick to share with you, but I am pleased to report that a paper on which I am a co-author demonstrates how to combine tree ring and growth increment data (with other data) to predict growth of forest trees. Here’s tha abstract and a link to the paper on bioRxiv.

https://doi.org/10.1101/097535

Fusing tree-ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth

Better understanding and prediction of tree growth is important because of the many ecosystem services provided by forests and the uncertainty surrounding how forests will respond to anthropogenic climate change. With the ultimate goal of improving models of forest dynamics, here we construct a statistical model that combines complementary data sources: tree-ring and forest inventory data. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to gain inference on the effects of many factors on tree growth (individual tree size, climate, biophysical conditions, stand-level competitive environment, tree-level canopy status, and forest management treatments) using both diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree-ring data. The model consists of two multiple regression models, one each for the two data sources, linked via a constant of proportionality between coefficients that are found in parallel in the two regressions. The model was applied to a dataset developed at a single, well-studied site in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico, U. S. A. Inferences from the model included positive effects of seasonal precipitation, wetness index, and height ratio, and negative effects of seasonal temperature, southerly aspect and radiation, and plot basal area. Climatic effects inferred by the model compared well to results from a dendroclimatic analysis. Combining the two data sources did not lead to higher predictive accuracy (using the leave-one-out information criterion, LOOIC), either when there was a large number of increment cores (129) or under a reduced data scenario of 15 increment cores. However, there was a clear advantage, in terms of parameter estimates, to the use of both data sources under the reduced data scenario: DBH remeasurement data for ~500 trees substantially reduced uncertainty about non-climate fixed effects on radial increments. We discuss the kinds of research questions that might be addressed when the high-resolution information on climate effects contained in tree rings are combined with the rich metadata on tree- and stand-level conditions found in forest inventories, including carbon accounting and projection of tree growth and forest dynamics under future climate scenarios.
(more…)

Don’t overinterpret STRUCTURE plots

Screen Shot 2016-08-21 at 4.11.10 PM
Several weeks ago1 Daniel Falush (@DanielFalush) posted a preprint on bioRxiv, “A tutorial on how (not) to over-interpret STRUCTURE/ADMIXTURE bar plots”. I finally had a chance to read it this weekend. Here’s the abstract:

Genetic clustering algorithms, implemented in popular programs such as STRUCTURE and ADMIXTURE, have been used extensively in the characterisation of individuals and populations based on genetic data. A successful example is reconstruction of the genetic history of African Americans who are a product of recent admixture between highly differentiated populations. Histories can also be reconstructed using the same procedure for groups which do not have admixture in their recent history, where recent genetic drift is strong or that deviate in other ways from the underlying inference model. Unfortunately, such histories can be misleading. We have implemented an approach (available at www.paintmychromsomes.com) to assessing the goodness of fit of the model using the ancestry ‘palettes’ estimated by CHROMOPAINTER and apply it to both simulated and real examples. Combining these complementary analyses with additional methods that are designed to test specific hypothesis allows a richer and more robust analysis of recent demographic history based on genetic data.

A key observation Falush and his co-authors make is that different demographic scenarios can lead to the same STRUCTURE diagram. They illustrate three different scenarios. In all of them, they simulate data from 12 populations but sample from only four of them. In all of the scenarios, population P4 has been isolated from the other three populations in the sample for a long time. It’s the relationship between P1, P2, and P3 that differs among the scenarios.

  • Recent admixture: P1 and P3 have also been distinct for some time, and P2 is a recent admixture of P1, P3, and P4.
  • Ghost admixture: P1 and P3 diverged some time ago, and P2 is a recent admixture of P1 and a “ghost” population more closely related to P3 than to P1.
  • Recent bottleneck: P1 is sister to P2 but underwent a strong recent bottleneck.

Screen Shot 2016-08-21 at 4.19.59 PM

As you can see, the STRUCTURE diagrams estimated from data simulated in each scenario are indistinguishable. They also show that if you have additional data available, specifically if you are lucky enough to be working in an organism with a lot of SNPs that are mapped, then you can combine estimates from CHROMOPAINTER with those from STRUCTURE to distinguish the recent admixture scenario from the other two – assuming that you’ve picked a reasonable number for K, the number of subpopulations.2

The authors also refer to Puechmaille’s recent work demonstrating that estimates of genetic structure are greatly affected by sample size. Bottom line: Read both this paper and Puechmaille’s if you use STRUCTURE, tread cautiously when interpreting results, and don’t expend too much effort trying to estimate the “right” K.


1OK, as you can see from the tweet, it was almost a month ago.

2The paper contains a brief remark about how hard it is to estimate K: “Unless the demographic history of the sample is particularly simple, the value of K inferred according to any statistically sensible criterion is likely to be smaller than the number of distinct drift events that have significantly impacted the sample. What the algorithm often does is in practice use variation in admixture proportions between individuals to approximately mimic the effect of more than K distinct drift events without estimating ancestral populations corresponding to each one.”

Falush, D., L. van Dorp, D. Lawson. 2016. A tutorial on how (not) to over-interpret STRUCTURE/ADMIXTURE bar plots. bioRxiv doi: 10.1101/066431
Lawson, D.J., G. Hellenthal, S. Myers, and D. Falush. 2012. Inference of population structure using dense haplotype data. PLoS Genetics 8:e1002453. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgen.1002453
Puechmaille, S.J. 2016. The program structure does not reliably recover the correct population structure when sampling is uneven: subsampling and new estimators alleviate the problem. Molecular Ecology Resources 16:608-627. doi: 10.1111/1755-0998.12512

Summary of tweeting from #Botany2016

Twitter activity for #Botany2016 has declined now that the conference has been over for a couple of days.

Botany-2016-tweets

Spirts remained high throughout the runup to the conference, dipping below zero only once about a week before everyone arrived.

Botany-2016-sentiment

@JChrisPires contributed a larger number of tweets (including tweets of others that he retweeted) than anyone else,

Botany-2016-tweeters-cumulative

but @uribe_convers had a larger impact, regardless of whether you measure impact in number of retweets

Botany-2016-impact

or in terms of number of likes

Botany-2016-likes

If you’d like to play around with the code, it’s available in Github: https://github.com/kholsinger/Twitter-stats.