I mentioned last month that Michael Mann and Lee Kump from RealClimate.org have a new book out, Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming. I ordered shortly after learning about it, and I finished reading it this weekend. It is a very, very, very good book. Mann and Kump explain the current state of climate science very well. They identify those features of the global climate that we understand well (e.g., the greenhouse effect), those we don't understand so well (e.g., the surface warming expected if CO2 levels increase to 560ppm), and those where the uncertainties are even larger (e.g., how fast will the major ice sheets melt). More importantly, they do a good job of explaining why action to curb climate change makes sense even though there are parts of the climate system we don't understand well.Clearly, we must work to diminish the uncertainty where possible, particularly when it impacts on our ability to make appropriate policy decisions or choose an optimal strategy for mitigating climate change. Recent history has taught us that uncertainties are not adequate justification for avoiding action. We know enough today to understand how vital it is that we act now. (emphasis mine)
I was also pleased to see that Mann and Kump have a brief discussion on the ethics of climate change.1 In it they point out that
I wouldn't put it quite that way, but surely it isn't fair to ask developing nations to shoulder as much of the burden as we whose wealth is responsible for most of the "locked in" climate change and whose wealth can help those who will suffer most.
1See James Garvey's The ethics of climate change: right and wrong in a warming world for an extended discussion.
- Western Europe, the United States, and other developed countries currently have high standards of living, in part, because of our past consumption of fossil fuels.
- The deleterious effects of climate change will be borne predominantly by those in developing countries whose poverty and lack of technological infrastructure make it less likely they will be able to adapt.
The developed world has already benefited from a century of cheap fossil-fuel energy. Given this fact, it is surely unfair to tell developing nations, who are just now beginning to build their energy and transportation infrastructures, that they can't have their turn to enjoy cheap oil.
I wouldn't put it quite that way, but surely it isn't fair to ask developing nations to shoulder as much of the burden as we whose wealth is responsible for most of the "locked in" climate change and whose wealth can help those who will suffer most.
1See James Garvey's The ethics of climate change: right and wrong in a warming world for an extended discussion.
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