Biofuels, food, and the World Bank

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Andrew Sullivan, among others, links to a report from the Guardian claiming that "Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75%"

The figure emphatically contradicts the US government's claims that plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil.

Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush.

In contrast, Environmental Capital (at the Wall Street Journal) has this to say:

Bob Davis of the WSJ spoke with Donald Mitchell, the author of the draft report--which wasn't secret at all, but a working paper. And like all working papers, it doesn't reflect the official position of the World Bank.

The report was meant to contribute to a World Bank position paper on rising food prices, which was released at the Bank's spring meeting in mid-April.

The final April report didn't include his specific calculation. But, Mr. Mitchell says, "I never saw that as political." Instead, he says he believes the changes were made because of "editing." He said that he has been encouraged by World Bank management to explore the issue of biofuels and the overall rise in food prices. "I had input" into the final report that was released at the spring meeting, he said.

Apparently, we will know more later this week.

Mr. Mitchell said that because of the publicity engendered by the Guardian piece, the World Bank is trying to put out a polished version of his report by the end of this week.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration's recent actions regarding California's request to regulate greenhouse gas emissions make it all too believable that they would also try to prevent publication of an embarassing World Bank report. After all, before becoming President of the World Bank a year ago Robert Zoellick was U.S. Trade Representative from 2001-2005 and Deputy Secretary of State in 2005 and 2006. On the other hand, I don't know of any cases in which Zoellick has been accused of trying to bend facts to fit policy, and a World Bank Spokesman (quoted in Environmental Capital) says that

Zoellick said today in Japan: "That's an internal study that we've been circulating to people to try to get different views from other aid agencies and different economic analyses. So, my own view is that that is probably at the far end. You see other people talk about ranges of 20 percent, 25 percent. There's s some at the lower end that I think are less credible. So, on this one I think I'm going to rely on the experts to be able to sort it through."
For the time being, I'll take the World Bank at their word. If Zoellick thinks figures "at the lower end" (presumably 20-25%) aren't credible, it may mean that the World Bank report will suggest a figure closer to 50%..

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