July 2008 Archives
- The longer a journal has been available online, the younger the average age of its articles that are cited.
- As more articles became available online, fewer were cited.
These changes likely mean that the shift from browsing in print to searching online facilitates avoidance of older and less relevant literature. Moreover, hyperlinking through an online archive puts experts in touch with consensus about what is the most important prior work--what work is broadly discussed and referenced. With both strategies, experts online bypass many of the marginally related articles that print researchers skim.The Economist puts it differently:
As a wag once put it, an expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until, eventually, he knows everything about nothing. It would be ironic if that is the sort of expertise that the world wide web is creating.
UC Berkeley is planning to build a new athletic center. It released an environmental impact statement in October 2006. In response to a lawsuit opposing the plans, Superior Court Judge Barbara J. Miller issued an injunction preventing the university from proceeding with its plans.
On Tuesday, however, Judge Miller said the university had "submitted competent evidence" that the center would "not result in safety risks."The injunction will now expire next Tuesday. But of course, it won't stop there. Opponents of the project have been living in a grove of oak trees at the site. The University erected a 10-foot high fence to prevent others from joining them in 2007. But yesterday
[T]he tree sitters managed to connect a new support cable between their perch and a tree about 200 feet away, allowing supplies and new protesters to reach the oak grove. On Wednesday afternoon protesters climbed across the new cable, dangling some 50 feet in the air as Berkeley police officers blocked access to the tree outside the fence.
And, unlike Evolution 2008, where I didn't hear my student Rachel Prunier present her talk. I'll get to hear her in Vancouver. We've been working hard on her talk, and I think it will be very interesting. So if you're in Vancouver, stop by 212/SUB at 9:15am on Tuesday morning to hear Rachel's talk on "Pelargonium community assembly in South Africa: The influence of phylogeny, morphology, and climate". I think you'll find the results intriguing.
In today's issue of Science we read
Our analysis shows that, for grades 2 to 11, the general population no longer shows a gender difference in math skills, consistent with the gender similarities hypothesis. There is evidence of slightly greater male variability in scores, although the causes remain unexplained. Gender differences in math performance, even among high scorers, are insufficient to explain lopsided gender patterns in participation in some STEM fields.I'm pleased to see that my suspicion turned out to be correct, but that's not why I'm writing.
One of Janine's students, Maria Pickering, is a co-author on a paper that just appeared in Nature. The authors found that "parasite biomass exceeded that of top predators". They show that parasites matter and that they matter a lot.
But what of the creatures who turned around and headed back in the opposite direction, from complex to primitive in point of eyesight, and ended up losing even the eyes they did have?Hitchens is right that the presence of vestigial organs is compelling evidence for evolution. As Dawkins put it, "Why on earth would God create a salamander with vestiges of eyes?" But natural selection may not be the mechanism responsible for the change.
Whoever benefits from this inquiry, it cannot possibly be Coulter or her patrons at the creationist Discovery Institute. The most they can do is to intone that "the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away." Whereas the likelihood that the post-ocular blindness of underground salamanders is another aspect of evolution by natural selection seems, when you think about it at all, so overwhelmingly probable as to constitute a near certainty.
The film takes a strongly sceptical view of current scientific thinking on climate change. It argues that the consensus on climate change is the product of "a multibillion-dollar worldwide industry: created by fanatically anti-industrial environmentalists; supported by scientists peddling scare stories to chase funding; and propped up by complicit politicians and the media". (from Wikipedia, 22 July 2008, 7:05am EDT)Showing of the documentary prompted an outcry from many scientists. Yesterday Ofcom1 found it in breach of three rules in the broadcasting code: (1) avoiding unjust or unfair treatment of individuals or organizations, (2) preserving "due impartiality", and (3) including "an appropriately wide range of significant views" and giving them due weight.
Here's what Robert Watson, a former chair of the IPCC, had to say about Ofcom's decision:
Sceptics who disseminate misinformation and argue that there is no need to address this urgent issue are placing the planet at risk, threatening the livelihoods of not only the present generation, but even more future generations - our children and grandchildren.Watson is right of course, but...
When interviewed by the media professionals, scientists tend not to remember that they are indirectly communicating to the general populace. They are focused on communicating to that guy with a microphone. And the two of them are already, a priori, biased about each other!I won't say any more. Go read the whole thing. It's worth the effort.
... Fuller happily adopts ID's rhetorical tactics: speaking of biologists' "faith"; forgetting to mention (or merely being ignorant of) the wealth of evidence for evolution in modern biology that wasn't available to Darwin himself; and even muttering about the "vicissitudes" of fossil-dating, thus generously holding the door open for young-Earth creationists, too. The book is an epoch-hopping parade of straw men, incompetent reasoning and outright gibberish, as when evolution is argued to share with astrology a commitment to "action at a distance", except that the distance is in time rather than space. It's intellectual quackery like this that gives philosophy of science a bad name.In case you don't remember who Steve Fuller is, he's a sociologist who specializes in science and technology studies at the University of Warwick. He appeared as a witness in the Dover trial tying to defend the iindefensible, i.e., trying to convince Judge Jones that intelligent design creationism is a legitimate scientific hypothesis.1 According to Poole, he embarrassed many of his colleagues in science and technology studies.
His amazingly bad new book is not likely to reassure them.
Ultimately, one is left wondering what the film aims to do. Does it argue that climate change is real, or discuss how we might convince people that it is? At the end of the film, Olson heads off to the editing studio to make a coherent story out of his footage. If only we had got to see that version.That's similar to the reaction many of the folks at Scienceblogs.com who reviewed it on Tuesday. Not all. Sheril Kirshenbaum had this to say:
There are many layers to Sizzle. While at times I laughed out loud (especially when climate change skeptic and cameraman Marion was on screen), other moments are quite thought provoking, encouraging us to reexamine who has been educating society about climate change and how.After reading some of the reviews, Chris Mooney wrote:
In my view, what's so great about Sizzle is the way it asks us to look hard at the insularity of our pro-science community--and the disconnect between the science world and other walks of life, other parts of American culture. In this context, doesn't the fact that many science bloggers are slamming it--and misunderstanding it--simply validate the film's central point?Orac's response to Mooney's post (he hasn't seen the movie yet) was included this:
I don't know if Sizzle was a good story or not because I haven't seen it yet, but I do know that whenever I see someone dismiss criticism as people "not getting it" or being humorless putzes who can't relate it strikes me as lazy and defensive. From many of the reviews I read, my fellow ScienceBloggers were bending over backward to give the movie the benefit of the doubt and to try to understand its message. Several of them just didn't think it was all that funny.My take?
Once considered a problem mainly for the future, climate change is now upon us. People are at the heart of this problem: we are causing it, and we are being affected by it. The rapid onset of many aspects of climate change highlights the urgency of confronting this challenge without further delay. The choices that we make now will influence current and future emissions of heat-trapping gases, and can help to reduce future warming. Likewise, our decisions on whether and how to adapt to the degree of warming that is already inevitable can help us reduce the impacts of future warming.
Annual reductions in carbon emissions associated with improved florest management. (From Putz et al., PLoS Biology 6(7): e166 doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0060166)To put that in perspective, total CO2 emissions in 2005 were 28.2 gigatons. A reduction of 0.16 gigatons per year would make that an even 28 gigatons, a reduction of about about 0.7%. That may not sound like a lot, but consider this. During the 1990s ttopical deforestation was responsible for about 1.5 gigatons of CO2 emissions annually (source). A reduction of 0.16 gigatons would represent about 10% of the total emissions associated with tropical deforestation. Suppose we could reduce deforestation rates by 50% by 2050, the annual reduction in CO2 emissions would be about 0.5 gigatons.1 Now reduced impact logging is looking very promising. It would eliminate almost 1/3 as much CO2 as an ambitious program to reduce deforestation. Better yet, if we combined a 50% reduction in deforestation with reduced impact logging, the total annual savings would climb to 2/3 of a gigaton, or over 15% of the total reduction in CO2 emissions necessary to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm.2
One half of Ontario's vast boreal forest will be permanently protected from mining and other resource development projects as part of a sweeping plan unveiled by Premier Dalton McGuinty to combat climate change.
The government will protect at least 225,000 square kilometres from development, representing one half of the boreal region in the far north and an area 1.5 times greater in size than all the Maritime provinces combined, Mr. McGuinty said Monday at a news conference. This land will be off limits to any resource projects and restricted to tourism and traditional aboriginal uses, such as hunting and fishing, he said.
The region constitutes about 40% of Ontarios land area. Or to look at it in a way that may be easier for those of us in the U.S. to relate to, 225,000 square kilometers is an area roughly the size of the entire state of Minnesota. That's a lot of forest protected from resource development. The area will continue to be available for tourism and for traditional uses by first nations and Métis, like hunting and fishing.
More information at http://www.sizzlethemovie.com/ (Sizzle poster from http://www.sizzlethemovie.com/sizzle_poster.tif)Let me clear. By "successful" I don't mean "successful in raising challenges that affect the overwhelming scientific consensus." I mean "successful in raising challenges that allow non-scientists to think that there are credible reasons to doubt the consensus." Proponents of ID and climate skeptics seem like nice, ordinary people. They talk in language that other ordinary people can understand. We talk like scientists, because we are.
After a production meeting in which Randy proposes a PowerPoint presentation for the movie because his cameraman kept interrupting and ruining the interviews,1 his mother (Muffy Moose) sneaks out of the meeting with his cameraman and soundman for a night on the town. They tell her that Randy's movie is in trouble, and she tells Randy that he needs to listen to them. Soon they're off to New Orleans and the lower 9th ward to see how the richest country in the world recovers from a disaster.
Summary of 21st century socioclimatic exposure (from Diffenbaugh et al.; view larger image in a popup window)We're all for open and objective discussions of scientific theories, right? Who wouldn't be? If your kids are taking physics in high school, you want them to read critiques of gravity, right? After all, shouldn't they know that there are some serious weaknesses in the theory of gravity? Right? For instance, the theory of gravity says that gravity makes things fall down. But planets don't fall into the sun. They go around it. So which is it-down or around? Clearly the theory of gravity is deficient. Right?
Wrong, of course. You don't teach critical thinking with patent nonsense.
Absolutely. And patent nonsense is exactly what our friends at the Discovery Institute are peddling.
TEN kilometres above the earth, the Pope delivered a message to the people of Sydney: the world is God's creation and humanity needs to safeguard it against the ravages of climate change.
His message, unexpected and delivered in Italian, called for a spiritual response to the environmental crisis and asked Catholics to find "a way of living, a style of life that eases the problems caused to the environment". ("Pontiff's plea to youth: go green," The Age, 14 July 2008)
The Vatican is installing solar cells to produce renewable energy, and it's working with a carbon offset company to establish a forest in Hungary large enough to offset its carbon footprint. The Evangelical Environmental Network is a group of evangelical protestants preaching the same gospel. Nick Matzke nailed it in his review of The Creation:
If conservationists are serious about making their case to evangelicals, they should have the goal of getting biodiversity on the front cover of Christianity Today, the leading evangelical newsmagazine. ... The key is convincing evangelicals that extinction is a moral outrage, something at least as senseless and horrible as book burning. Extinction should be viewed as stealing from future generations.
So if you're concerned about what your eating habits are doing to the climate, eat less red meat and dairy.
It's available for $16.50 from Amazon.com (list price $25), and it will be released on 21 July.
Off the Brazilian coast, where the narrow continental shelf widens far out into the Atlantic Ocean, marine scientists have discovered reefs that they believe double the size of Brazil's largest and richest reef system, the Abrolhos Bank.Conservation International and other groups will ask the Brazilian government to extend protection to the newly discovered reefs. Here's hoping that they are successful.
...
"Due to their relative inaccessibility and depth, the newly discovered reefs are teeming with life, in some places harboring 30 times the density of marine life than the known, shallower reefs," says Guilherme Dutra, Conservation International's director of marine programs in Brazil.
"That's the good news," he said. "The bad news is that only a small percentage of marine habitats in the Abrolhos are protected, despite mounting localized and global threats." (news report from Environmental News Service).
Vice President Dick Cheney's office was involved in removing statements on health risks posed by global warming from a draft of a health official's Senate testimony last year, a former senior government environmental official said on Tuesday.The former official making the accusations, Jason K. Burnett, is a life-long Democrat, but he served as associate deputy director of the E.P.A. until he resigned in May.
In the letter, while declining to name individuals, Mr. Burnett said the offices of Mr. Cheney and the White House Council on Environmental Quality "were seeking deletions" of sections of draft testimony describing health risks from warming. The testimony was prepared by Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for a hearing last October before [Senator Barbara] Boxer's committee.Editing testimony is one thing. Distorting it is another. I'd say that removing "any discussion of the human health consequences of climate change" is distortion, not editing
,,,
Marc Morano, a spokesman for James M. Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican and the ranking minority member on the Senate environment committee, ... said the criticism was unjustified.
A joint statement issued this morning by the heads of the world's leading industrialised nations, who are meeting in Japan, agreed to work towards a global target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50 per cent by the year 2050.But
European leaders, including Gordon Brown, had been pushing for much more ambitious interim cuts to be implemented by 2020. These were blocked by the United States, Japan and Canada.A statement from the WWF says that the "WWF finds it pathetic that they still duck their historic responsibility."
Even Japanese organisers of the summit admitted that the statement represented only minor progress on the road to a new agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which began at the UN conference in Bali last December.
The fact of the matter is that most of what goes on in the sciences is completely (and usually correctly) well below the radar of the public at large. But when there are discoveries and issues that do have public policy ramifications, getting the public to pay attention often requires finding just these kinds of resonances.Sounds a little like framing, don't you think?
The figure emphatically contradicts the US government's claims that plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil.
Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush.
In contrast, Environmental Capital (at the Wall Street Journal) has this to say:
Apparently, we will know more later this week.Bob Davis of the WSJ spoke with Donald Mitchell, the author of the draft report--which wasn't secret at all, but a working paper. And like all working papers, it doesn't reflect the official position of the World Bank.
The report was meant to contribute to a World Bank position paper on rising food prices, which was released at the Bank's spring meeting in mid-April.
The final April report didn't include his specific calculation. But, Mr. Mitchell says, "I never saw that as political." Instead, he says he believes the changes were made because of "editing." He said that he has been encouraged by World Bank management to explore the issue of biofuels and the overall rise in food prices. "I had input" into the final report that was released at the spring meeting, he said.
Mr. Mitchell said that because of the publicity engendered by the Guardian piece, the World Bank is trying to put out a polished version of his report by the end of this week.
- Voters place a significant amount of importance on public policy decisions that are based on science and technology to solve problems we face today, like global warming, energy, public education, and health care. Roughly seven in ten voters (72%) rate this between 8-10 on a 10-point scale (where 0 is not at all important and 10 is extremely important). 43% of voters give this statement a rating of 10.
- Majorities of voters say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who is committed to advancing science and technology on a range of issues.
- Majorities across partisan lines say they would be more likely to support a candidate who is committed to these issues.
This morning I noticed that C|Net News.com had picked up the story. That's even better news for those of us who care about biodiversity than a story in the Hartford Courant about fairy shrimp.
Well, fairy shrimp are small crustaceans that often occur in vernal pools and other ephemeral pools. They belong to the order Anostraca, which also includes brine shrimp. As their name suggests, brine shrimp occur in salty bodies of water like the Great Salt Lake and the Dead Sea, but they don't occur in the ocean. You can learn more about them at Wikipedia.
Why does any of this matter, other than it being pretty cool that a species that hasn't been seen for 50 years has been found again? Because I learned about it on the front page of yesterday's Hartford Courant1. I'm delighted to see that a story like this appear on the front page of a paper. It reminds all of us that there's a tremendous amount of biodiversity in our own back yard and that there's still a lot we don't know about it.
On behalf of the American science and innovation community (see who here), we have submitted these questions to the candidates for President and asked them to do two simple things: A) provide a written response, which we will publish here, and B) discuss these questions in a nationally televised forum.The 14 questions asked of presidential candidates include the 7 questions asked of congressional candidates. You can find out how your representatives, senators, and their challengers answered the questions by entering your zip code in the Innovation 2008 box at the bottom of the page.
David Goldston had doubts about earlier incarnations of ScienceDebate2008, and his doubts caused me some doubts of my own. But after looking at the 14 questions that have been posted, I am really looking forward to the answers. They will tell us a lot about our next president.1
More evidence of the rotting of the right's brain. Conservapedia objects to the finding that a bacteria strain evolved the ability to better utilize sugar over 20 years."Rotting of the right's brain", or if not the whole right, at least those who run Conservapaedia. Writing at ArsTechnica John Timmer notes
Problems with group think and incendiary discussions are common complaints about what happens behind the scenes at Wikipedia. The irony here is that Conservapedia was ostensibly founded as a response to precisely that behavior. It appears that the victims may now be trying the role of oppressors on for size.

