The cost of climate change

WHAT would happen if pigs could fly? Bacon would go up. The old schoolboy joke springs to mind when one starts to think about some of the bizarre ramifications of global warming.To recast the joke: what would happen if global temperatures rose?

Bacon would go up (and beef as well). Or at least that is the conclusion of Francisco Blanch, a Merrill Lynch commodity strategist. (source)

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) may think that global warming is “the most media-hyped environmental issue of all time,” and he may not accept the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that:

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR), leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level
• Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR's conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations”. Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

  (from the Summary for Policy Makers of Climate Change 2000:The Physical Science Basis; emphasis in the original)

When a commodity strategist for Merrill Lynch projects that climate change is going to raise prices of corn, sugar, beer, pork, and other agricultural commodities, maybe even Senator Inhofe will sit up and take notice. And if he thinks the projection is “advocates of alarmism”, maybe he'll be convinced by the recent history of corn prices.

But probably not. After all, this is a Senator who introduced a bill (that still has no co-sponsors) “to prohibit Federal funding for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,” a group of 30 member countries “sharing a commitment to democratic government and the market economy.”