I've done a little more poking around and found some more specific figures on what we can reasonably expect to see in the way of new oil production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
In early 2000, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in response to a Congressional request, issued a report on potential oil reserves and production from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). The report, which cited a 1998 U.S. Geological Survey study of ANWR oil resources, projected that for the mean resource case (10.3 billion barrels technically recoverable), ANWR peak production rates could range from 1.0 to 1.35 million bbl/d, with initial ANWR production possibly beginning around 2010, and peak production 20-30 years after that.
(source: United States Country Analysis Brief, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy)
That's about twice what I reported earlier, based on a report from British Petroleum, but its still barely 5% of the 20.4 million barrels per day we currently consume. Worse yet,
Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from an approval to explore and develop to first production from the ANWR Area.
(source: Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy)
And it gets even worse. Look at this figure, which shows two different production scenarios over 65 years based on the 10.3 billion barrel estimate. On either scenario oil from the Refuge will amount to more than 600 million barrels per day (a little more than 2.5% of current daily consumption) for only 20 of its 65 years. For this we build roads and drilling platforms on one of the last great wilderness areas in North America? Those who would do so have no soul.
(Source: Figure 4: Production Schedules at Two Development Rates for the Statistical Mean of Recovering 10.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil from the ANWR Coastal Plain of Alaska, Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy)
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