[T]he fact that the charges are (apparently) politically motivated is indeed a reason to regard them skeptically, and they make it less likely -- perhaps much less likely -- that Mr. Assange is guilty of them. (Although he may be guilty of being a creep even if he is not guilty of a crime.)Go read the whole column to understand why.
Nevertheless, I have come across a number of analyses that try to evaluate the merits of the charges without regard to this political context, or which otherwise seem caught up in debating their salacious details. That is likely a mistake: in a world of limited information, the political motivation behind the charges might be the most important clue we have in evaluating their merit. (emphasis added)
Bayes theorem and WikiLeaks
Nate Silver provides an interesting perspective on the charges against Julian Assange at FiveThirtyEight.com. It's a nice example of a real-world application of Bayes' theorem. His conclusion? You should really read the whole column, but here it is:
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