October 2009 Archives

The public reception of scientific ideas depends largely on two factors: people's ability to grasp factual information and the cultural lens through which that information is filtered.

The lesson for today's scientists and policy-makers is simple: they cannot assume that a public presented with 'the facts' will come to the same conclusion as themselves. They must take value systems, cultural backdrops and local knowledge gaps into account and frame their arguments accordingly. Such approaches will be crucial in facing current global challenges, from recessions to pandemics and climate change. These issues will be perceived and dealt with differently by different nations -- not because they misunderstand, but because their understanding is in part locally dependent. (emphasis added)

The Science Media Centre of Canada will help journalists cover stories in which science plays an important part.

...

More than two dozen organizations from the private, public and corporate sectors have donated $5,000 to become Charter Members of the SMCC and are recognized on the Centre's website (www.sciencemediacentre.ca). This support is allowing us to push ahead aggressively in these areas:

• Governance models, location, start-up funding and long-term financing have all been examined by Halifax Global and that Business Plan is posted on the Centre's website.
• Formal application has been made to incorporate the SMCC federally as a non-profit corporation.
• A project manager will be engaged shortly to help the Steering Committee identify "Champions" of greater public engagement with science and to raise funds for the start-up and initial year of operations, estimated at $1 million.

non-Canadian non-science reporters who suddenly have an assignment on, oh, the relative merits of biofuels made from krill or algae, or a giant comet aimed straight at our Moon, or a finding that tuna are fully sentient, can call up something called the Science Media Centre of Canada for a tip on what to do and what's this about anyway. (source)

• Joe Romm, Climate Progress
• Jon Gelbard, Conservation Value
• Dina Cappiello, Associated Press (a glancing mention in the 4th paragraph of the article)

WASHINGTON -- Have you heard that the world is now cooling instead of warming? You may have seen some news reports on the Internet or heard about it from a provocative new book.

Only one problem: It's not true, according to an analysis of the numbers done by several independent statisticians for The Associated Press.

...

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.

"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina. (Seth Borenstein, Associated Press)

'Nuff said.

But one thing, dear blogger here at UConn. Let's not play the same ugly game Rush plays and wish for his head to explode! That's the same sickness and ugliness that Rush plays by and you should have more class, sir. Please remove or edit that part to sound more humanistic. Something like [edit] "And you might take a moment to see how Rush Limbaugh attack Andy in a very ugly way {here LINK]."

Touch the Namiki Falcon's 14K gold nib to paper and enjoy a response you've never experienced before. Black resin barrel has gold-plated clip and trim. Uses cartridges or converter.

A perpetual favorite with serious fountain pen users, the Falcon offers one of the very best flexible nibs on the market. The Falcon 2 gives you the same exceptional writing with a new bold look - the barrel and cap have been redesigned in high quality metal in four distinctive colors: Sapphire Blue, Chocolate Brown, Black or Burgundy. Rhodium-plated accents add a contemporary yet timeless appeal. The Falcon 2 fountain pen has a stellar 14K gold and rhodium nib that delivers ink in a smooth and controlled manner assuring an exceptional writing experience. Its outstanding responsiveness allows you to create thick and thin characters as you vary the pressure on each stroke.

The map shows the impact of an average 4C rise in global temperature, which John Beddington, the government's chief scientist, said would be "disastrous". A study by the Met Office last month said that such a 4C rise could come as soon as 2060 without urgent and serious action to reduce emissions. (source)

What five elements make up an effective message?

First, it has to have some urgency. Second, it has to have as much certainty as can be mustered with integrity. Third, there can't be just one message: there must be messages targeted to different groups. Fourth, messages should be framed in positive terms. Evidence from a recent thesis I co-supervised shows that people are less willing to change their behaviour if you tell them they have to make sacrifices. If you tell them they can be in the vanguard, be a hero, be the one that helps -- that works. Fifth, you have to give people the sense that their vote counts and that their effort won't be in vain.

There you have it. The advice comes in the context of communicating about global climate change, but I'm going to paste that paragraph somewhere where I see it frequently, because the advice applies to communicating any message.

There has been a sharp decline over the past year in the percentage of Americans who say there is solid evidence that global temperatures are rising. And fewer also see global warming as a very serious problem - 35% say that today, down from 44% in April 2008.

[W]e are sending a clear and definitive statement to the international community that the status quo is not acceptable.

[C]limate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science. Moreover, there is strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment.

We in the scientific community offer our assistance to inform your
deliberations as you seek to address the impacts of climate change.

For the first time since it was created fourteen years ago, Columbia University's highly regarded dual-degree graduate program in environmental journalism will not be accepting applications for next academic year.

In a letter to faculty at the Graduate School of Journalism, the Department of Environmental Sciences, and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, the program directors cited falling employment in the field, the rising costs of education, and a lack of financial aid for students as the reasons for their decision.

Appendix I lists species that are the most endangered among CITES-listed animals and plants (see Article II, paragraph 1 of the Convention). They are threatened with extinction and CITES prohibits international trade in specimens of these species except when the purpose of the import is not commercial (see Article III), for instance for scientific research.

WASHINGTON, DC - Today [14 October], Tom Strickland, Assistant Secretary of the Interior for Fish and Wildlife and Parks, announced that the United States supports a proposal submitted by the principality of Monaco to list the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) in Appendix I of the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna (CITES). CITES Appendix-I listing affords a species stringent protection and prohibits all international commercial trade.  The fifteenth regular meeting of the CITES parties is scheduled for March 13-24, 2010 in Doha, Qatar (CoP15). Strickland will lead the United States' delegation to CoP15, on behalf of the U.S. government (news release from FWS).

Avoid bluefin tuna--they're severely overfished and fishing gear used to catch them entangle sea turtles, seabirds and sharks and endanger their populations.

Bluefin tuna provide the world's most valuable sushi and the high demand for this fish has taken its toll. The Atlantic population has declined by nearly 90% since the 1970s. Bluefin are slow to mature and, unfortunately, many young fishes are caught before they have the chance to reproduce.

• it is very likely we'll see increases in the frequency of heat waves and heavy precipitation,
• it is likely we'll see more tropical cyclones, i.e., hurricanes, and
• there is high confidence that many arid and semi-arid areas will have fewer water resources than they do now.

I will go to the talks in December if it means we will get an agreement and I am urging other leaders to join me. But it must be the start of something not the end.

And it is not just about what governments do; we all have to take responsibility to cut emissions from our homes, our cars and our places of work.

Sarah and I are trying to do our bit. In Downing Street, we are composting, recycling, using energy-saving light bulbs and buying locally-sourced and sustainable food whenever possible. It's little things like this which will make a big difference if we all do them.

"Students are discouraged from any conversations about religion," said Poirier, who also is a co-sponsor of the bill. "Perhaps in science class, when evolution is discussed, a student would be able to bring up creationism." (source)

Ostrom found that individuals will cooperate if, among other things, they are able to participate in governance, monitor the compliance of others, and punish cheaters. "When people have trust that others are going to reciprocate, then there can be cooperation," she says. "When there is no trust, there is no cooperation unless people are facing the gun."

The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons. Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying capacity of the land. Finally, however, comes the day of reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of social stability becomes a reality. At this point, the inherent logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.

As a rational being, each herdsman seeks to maximize his gain. Explicitly or implicitly, more or less consciously, he asks, "What is the utility to me of adding one more animal to my herd?" This utility has one negative and one positive component.

1) The positive component is a function of the increment of one animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of the additional animal, the positive utility is nearly +1.

2) The negative component is a function of the additional overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen, the negative utility for any particular decision-making herdsman is only a fraction of -1.

Adding together the component partial utilities, the rational herdsman concludes that the only sensible course for him to pursue is to add another animal to his herd. And another; and another. . . . But this is the conclusion reached by each and every rational herdsman sharing a commons. Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit--in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all. (emphasis added)

At the appropriate place in title III, insert the following:

Sec. __. None of the funds appropriated under this Act may be used to carry out the functions of the Political Science Program in the Division of Social and Economic Sciences of the Directorate for Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences of the National Science Foundation.

Krugman's work on international trade and economic geography represents a paradigm shift in research on global economics. Beginning in 1979, Krugman proposed a new model that provided a theory for the effects of globalization and free trade. It offered a better explanation than the well-established theory of foreign trade that certain countries have a comparative advantage over others in more effectively producing particular goods based on factors such as climate, natural resources or supplies of labor or capital. Krugman recognized that the traditional theory did not fully explain modern trends that showed international trade becoming increasingly concentrated among smaller numbers of producers and nations. His work shed light on key economic issues such as why countries import and export the same goods, how companies decide where to locate, how people decide where to live and why dense urban areas become centers of economic activity while existing alongside sparsely populated rural areas.

Basic research in the hard sciences or the social sciences is a public good -- these things tend to get underprovided in a perfectly free market.  It's not clear to me at all why Coburn thinks that the $9 million spent on poli sci is a waste but the gazillions from the public trough spent on the hard sciences are not a waste when private corporations, industrial associations, scientific publications, universities, and private citizens couldn't fund this stuff.

CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, the print media, and a seemingly endless number of political commentators on the internet ... pour over this data and provide a myriad of viewpoints to answer the same questions.

A universal Turing machine is an abstract computational device that can perform any computation that can be performed by any actual or theoretical computational device.²

1. There is no problem solvable by a human brain that cannot be solved by a machine. In particular, creativity and intuition are computable. Philosophically, we have no soul (not anymore than a PC).
2. We all live within a discrete computer simulation. Physics is digital. Continuous functions (such as f(x)=sin(x)) are approximations to the discrete functions governing nature, and not the reverse. We all live in the Matrix.

Evidence is your friend. More evidence means more cutoffs to choose from, more trends to analyse, more phases to count, more outliers to discover, and more confusion to sow. Be careful to disguise the fact that you and not the data are the source of the confusion.

"We strongly object to the chamber's recent comments opposing the E.P.A.'s effort to limit greenhouse gases," wrote Catherine A. Novelli, the vice president of worldwide government affairs at Apple, in a letter dated today and addressed to Thomas J. Donohue, president and chief executive of the chamber. Click here to read the letter.

"Apple supports regulating greenhouse gas emissions, and it is frustrating to find the chamber at odds with us in this effort," Ms. Novelli continued.

Psychologist Simon Baron-Cohen and his colleagues at Cambridge's Autism Research Centre have created the Autism-Spectrum Quotient, or AQ, as a measure of the extent of autistic traits in adults. In the first major trial using the test, the average score in the control group was 16.4. Eighty percent of those diagnosed with autism or a related disorder scored 32 or higher. The test is not a means for making a diagnosis, however, and many who score above 32 and even meet the diagnostic criteria for mild autism or Asperger's report no difficulty functioning in their everyday lives

The newest release is perhaps the most beautiful of all - Indian Summer. Experiencing the extended mild weather and spectacular colors of a true Indian Summer is a wondrous event. The autumn leaves change and glow in breathtaking yellows, oranges and reds. This unrivaled play of color begins in August in parts of Alaska and the mountainsides of Canada and continues through November, spreading across most of the United States. The term "Indian Summer" is rooted in the proud culture of the native Americans. It describes their love of bold colors and the final hunting season before the onset of winter, when warm temperatures tempt animals out of their quarters one last time. Using only the finest materials, Pelikan crafts the Indian Summer writing instruments to perfection. The focal point is the multi-colored, lacquered and polished metal barrel with elaborate silver engravings of leaves and mountains. It flows into the dark brown, high-grade resin cap and pen ends. The fountain pen has an 18K gold nib with rhodium accents that is masterfully formed, polished and carefully hand-tested.

[W]e need a nation in which science has far more prominence in politics and the media, far more relevance to the life of every American, far more intersections with other walks of life, and ultimately, far more influence where it truly matters -- namely, in setting the agenda for the future as far out as we can possibly glimpse it. (emphasis added)

Climate change affects us all and it threatens more than the environment. It threatens to cause famine, flooding, war, and millions of refugees.

Given the urgency of the issue of climate change and the upcoming international climate negotiations in Copenhagen this December, we think the blogosphere has the unique opportunity to mobilize millions of people around expressing support for finding a sustainable solution to the climate crisis.