Hint on Problem #2

I've heard from a couple of people who are having difficulty getting started on Problem #2. Here's the hint I gave them, and I thought I'd pass it along to everyone.

1. Remember the kind of selection we've been focusing on, namely viability selection.
2. Remember the definition of viability selection, namely the probability of zygote to adult.
3. Remember the assumptions in the problem statement, namely that 90% of those diagnosed with severe malaria dia and that anyone who is going to get severe malaria gets it before they have a chance to reproduce.
   

If you work through the implication of those three observations, you should be able to estimate fitnesses for each of the three genotypes.

To answer the second question you're going to need to think of a way to compare fitnesses. You don't have to use WinBUGS to answer that question. You could do a chi-squared contingency test, rather than using WinBUGS. But to get full credit for your answer on this question, you'll need to do one or the other.