1. Remember: Think Backwards! Or at least work backwards. If you're having trouble getting started writing your WinBUGS code, apply one of the seven habits of highly effective people by beginning with the end in mind. Start by thinking about what you want your WinBUGS output to include, i.e., what you want WinBUGS to calculate for you, to answer each of the questions. Then see if you can figure out how to get WinBUGS to give you numbers for those things.
2. The difference makes no difference. Whether it's positive or negative, that is. If you need to compare two values, and you want to do that by subtracting one from the other, it doesn't really matter which one you subtract from the other. All you really want to know is whether the difference between them is different from zero, so it doesn't matter whether that difference is positive or negative.
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