An example to try on your own

Question: Should logging be halted immediately in all old-growth forests of the Pacific Northwest?

• Define the possible outcomes

• Define the some gain/loss functions, e.g., $pE$ for northern spotted owl, economic impact on local communities

• Define the intermediate states that affect the probabilities of the various outcomes

• Define the branch-specific probabilities of particular event sequences

• Calculate the expected gains and losses

• Translate the expected gains and losses into utilities.

• Explore sensitivity of outcome to various parameters.