December 2009 Archives

The Northern Rocky Mountain Gray Wolf is Not Yet Recovered

Bradley J. Bergstrom, Sacha Vignieri, Steven R. Sheffield, Wes Sechrest, and Anne A. Carlson

Without seeking independent scientific review, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar recently approved a 14 January 2009 Bush administration rule to remove endangered species protection from the northern Rocky Mountain (NRM) Distinct Population Segment (DPS) of gray wolves less than 14 years after their reintroduction to Idaho and Wyoming. The "delisting" rule does not adequately address lack of genetic connectivity between Yellowstone wolf packs and other NRM populations, for which reason a federal court overturned the 2008 predecessor of the rule. The US Fish and Wildlife Service defies its own policies by delisting the Idaho and Montana portions of the DPS while Wyoming wolves remain endangered. Criteria for this delisting are inconsistent with prior delistings of recovered birds and mammals. New scientific understanding of species recovery argues for a higher delisting threshold for the NRM gray wolf metapopulation. Finally, we argue that ecosystem recovery should be a recovery criterion for this unique keystone predator.

BioScience 59(11):991-999. 2009
doi: 10.1525/bio.2009.59.11.11

1. How much of your $1000 annual income would you be willing to forfeit if it would give you a 25% chance of preventing extinction of the endangered Sumatran rhino?
2. How much of your $1000 annual income would you be willing to forfeit if it would give you a 50% chance of preventing extinction of the endangered Sumatran rhino?
3. How much of your $1000 annual income would you be willing to forfeit if it would give you a 75% chance of preventing extinction of the endangered Sumatran rhino?
4. How much of your $1000 annual income would you be willing to forfeit if it would give you a 100% chance of preventing extinction of the endangered Sumatran rhino?

Problem 1: Which of the following two probabilities is higher?
(A) The probability that, within the next five years, Congress will pass a law to curb mercury pollution, if the number of deaths attributed to mercury poisoning during the next five years exceeds 500.
(B) The probability that, within the next five years, Congress will pass a law to curb mercury pollution, if the number of deaths attributed to mercury poisoning during the next five years does not exceed 500.

Problem 2: Which of the following two probabilities is higher?
(A) The probability that the number of deaths attributed to mercury poisoning during the next five years will exceed 500, if Congress passes a law within the next five years to curb mercury pollution.
(B) The probability that the number of deaths attributed to mercury poisoning during the next five years will exceed 500, if Congress does not pass a law within the next five years to curb mercury pollution.